Year 7 |
Year 8 |
Year 9 |
Year 10 |
Year 11 |
Extension |
| Use vocabulary and ideas of probability, drawing on experience. |
Interpret the results of an experiment using the language of probability; appreciate that random processes are unpredictable. |
Interpret results involving uncertainty and prediction. |
Use tree diagrams to represent outcomes of two or more events and to calculate probabilities of combinations of independent events. |
Use tree diagrams to represent outcomes of compound events, recognising when events are independent and distinguishing between contexts involving selection both with and without replacement. |
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| Understand and use the probability scale from 0 to 1; find and justify probabilities based on equally likely outcomes in simple contexts; identify all the possible mutually exclusive outcomes of a single event. |
Know that if the probability of an event occurring is p then the probability of it not occurring is 1 − p; use diagrams and tables to record in a systematic way all possible mutually exclusive outcomes for single events and for two successive events. |
Identify all the mutually exclusive outcomes of an experiment; know that the sum of probabilities of all mutually exclusive outcomes is 1 and use this when solving problems.
Two dice sum Excel |
Know when to add or multiply two probabilities: if A and B are mutually exclusive, then the probability of A or B occurring is P(A) + P(B), whereas if A and B are independent events, the probability of A and B occurring is P(A) × P(B). |
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Recognise when and how to work with probabilities associated with independent and mutually exclusive events when interpreting data. |
| Estimate probabilities by collecting data from a simple experiment and recording it in a frequency table; compare experimental and theoretical probabilities in simple contexts.
Flipping one coin Excel |
Compare estimated experimental probabilities with theoretical probabilities, recognising that: • if an experiment is repeated the outcome may, and usually will, be different • increasing the number of times an experiment is repeated generally leads to better estimates of probability.
Two dice sum Excel
Two coins excel |
Compare experimental and theoretical probabilities in a range of contexts; appreciate the difference between mathematical explanation and experimental evidence.
Adjustable spinner |
Understand relative frequency as an estimate of probability and use this to compare outcomes of experiments. |
Understand that if an experiment is repeated, the outcome may – and usually will – be different, and that increasing the sample size generally leads to better estimates of probability and population parameters. |
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